It may no longer be fashionable to quote Donald Rumsfeld, but the former US defence secretary was right more often than he was wrong. And he was never more right than in the words he uttered when he was appointed in 2001 and repeated when he left office in 2006: “Weakness is provocative. Time and again, weakness has invited adventures that strength might well have deterred.”
As if ever we needed reminding of that truth, the words that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke as he prepared to leave office this month have only reinforced it. He said, in an interview with the New York Times: “Whenever there has been public daylight between the US and Israel and the perception of pressure building on Israel, we’ve seen it, Hamas has pulled back from agreeing to a ceasefire and the release of hostages. With this daylight, the prospect of getting a hostage and ceasefire deal over the line becomes more distant.”
So Blinken believes that ever since October 7, 2023, whenever the US has been weak in its support for Israel, whenever it has criticised the Netanyahu Government, whenever it has shied away from full support for the campaign to neutralise Hamas terrorism, then peace has become more distant and the fate of the hostages more terrible.
You almost have to pinch yourself and rub your eyes on reading those words.
Not because they’re incoherent. They make perfect sense. Of course Hamas are going to fight harder and longer if they think Israel’s allies are wavering and unsteady. The history of the last century – and beyond – shows terrorist actors and aggressive states are more likely to strike, and to carry on with a conflict, if they sense weakness and irresolution on the part of democracies. From Britain’s ambivalence on whether it would intervene on the eve of the First World War to Osama bin Laden’s preparing the 9/11 atrocity while the Clinton White House was pressuring Israel to sign a peace deal with the Palestinians, the impression of inconstancy is the incentive for attack.
No, the reason why Blinken’s words are disorienting is that he is not a Team Trump Maga cheerleader denouncing the weakness of the Biden White House. He is Joe Biden’s diplomat-in-chief, the author of precisely the strategy and exactly the mistakes that he now holds responsible for inflicting more misery on both the Israeli and the Palestinian peoples. It’s as though Neville Chamberlain were to denounce whoever the guy was behind that whole Munich thing.
Blinken and Biden chided Israel from November 2023 over tactics, strategy, the execution of the war and the implementation of their ground operations. In March 2024, the Biden administration told Israel not to enter Rafah. In April, Blinken said that unless Israel changed course, the US would change its policy of support. The Biden-Blinken team also tried to stay Israel’s hand in dealing with Hezbollah. This was not so much the creation of “daylight” between the US and Israel as a thousand megawatt torch directed at their differences.
The West has cause to be grateful that the Netanyahu government chose not to follow the Biden-Blinken lead. Rather than show the sort of weakness that would have won sympathy from the White House but won no battles on the ground, the Israeli government demonstrated the sort of strength that is the only path to enduring peace. By crippling Hamas’s ability to fight and removing its military leadership, then neutralising much of Hezbollah’s offensive capacity and taking similar steps with its leaders, Israel dealt devastating blows to the terrorist organisations dedicated to its destruction. And it advanced the cause of peace more widely.
The daylight into which the prisoners of Syria’s jails at last stumbled was daylight that dawned following Israel’s actions in weakening Hezbollah, Hamas and their sponsors in Iran. The pillars propping up Assad’s regime had been shaken to their foundations by Israel. And it is to Israel’s credit that its government did not stand idle as Assad fell. The prompt action the IDF took in southern Syria in the days after Assad’s departure helped ensure the weapons he had stockpiled would not fall into the wrong hands.
More than that, the toppling of Assad, following Hezbollah’s humiliation and Hamas’s defeats, has set the seal on a truly terrible year for Iran’s ayatollahs. Their direct attacks on Israel have failed. With their proxies diminished and their allies defeated, the Iranian regime looks weaker than at any time since 1979. That is not just good news for Israel, whose destruction Iran’s leaders are committed to, but Iran’s own people who yearn to breathe free.
Let it not be forgotten that Assad’s demise is also a setback for Putin’s Russia. Weakened by the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, it could not afford the troops or the resources to maintain its murderous ally in the Middle East. And it has lost more than a regional puppet and prestige in the global south. The loss of its naval and air bases in Syria weaken its ability to refuel and reinforce its mercenary armies in Africa. Whatever steps may be taken towards peace in Ukraine this year, they take place against a backdrop in which Russia is weaker following Israel’s actions.
Terrorists defeated, tyrants toppled, democracy defended and Ukraine strengthened: None of this would have happened if the Biden-Blinken team had had their way. Maybe it’s time Joe and Antony made amends to Bibi before they leave office on January 20. Words are all very well, but what about something more tangible? Why not nominate the men and women of the IDF for the Nobel Peace Prize? Provocative, perhaps. But as a sign that Team Biden finally recognises that it’s weakness that really is more provocative than strength, it would be truly enlightening.
Michael Gove is editor of the Spectator
