While the US and Europe have remained steadfast in support of Israel since October 7, they have failed to hold the source of terror accountable: the regime in Iran. It is inconceivable that Iran-backed Hamas could conduct a terror attack on such a scale without not just the greenlight of Tehran, but its strategic planning.

Of course, the sympathisers and the sceptics will immediately cry, “There’s no evidence” –conveniently pointing to the Biden administration’s insistence on this. Yet there is undeniable intelligence exposing Tehran’s fingerprints. Whether one acts on intelligence or evidence is a political decision and ultimately goes back to the appetite to act against the Iranian regime – something Washington currently doesn’t want to stomach.

But how did we get to this point?

When some say, “This didn’t start on October 7”, they are right. This iteration of terror as we know it today began in the early 1990s when the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which controls Tehran’s network of terrorist militias (the “Axis of Resistance”), started to patronise Hamas. Ties between the IRGC and Hamas began after Israel expelled hundreds of Hamas terrorists to Lebanon. There, Hamas militants underwent training by Hezbollah, including suicide bombing.

A Hamas contingent was also sent to Iran to undertake missile training by the so-called “Godfather” of the Iranian ballistic missile programme, IRGC commander Hassan Tehrani-Moghaddam.

It was not long before the IRGC became Hamas’ main military, logistical and financial backer, the shared strategic objective of “eradicating Israel” binding these two entities together.

Tehran’s support is not restricted to hard power. For decades, the IRGC has provided soft power assistance to Hamas, including the means to recruit and radicalise Palestinians, as well as infrastructural support. Mimicking a model developed by IRGC commander Hassan Shateri in Lebanon, the IRGC created the “Reconstruction Committee for Gaza” in 2008 to devise a plan to reconstruct civilian buildings in Gaza – from schools to hospitals – to house missiles for Hamas. What we’re witnessing today in Gaza is a product of this IRGC plan to use civilians to protect missiles, making it harder for Israel to target Hamas positions with minimal cost to civilian life.

Hamas simply would not have the capabilities to conduct October 7 without enabling support from Tehran.

But the link between the IRGC and October 7 does not stop there. The IRGC has long been preparing for a major confrontation with Israel. In 2021, for example, it established a joint war room in Lebanon that brought Hezbollah and Hamas under one roof to better coordinate attacks on Israel. In 2023 the IRGC also significantly increased funding for Hamas from an average of $100 million annually to $350 million.

On 25 October the Wall Street Journal cited intelligence revealing 500 Hamas terrorists received specialised IRGC training prior inside Iran in September. This is consistent with changes made to the IRGC’s doctrine, structures and personnel in the past months and years – all of which signaled the IRGC was moving towards a major regional confrontation.

This will surprise many following the China-brokered Iran-Saudi deal earlier this year, which has been completely misinterpreted. Khamenei and the IRGC’s motivation was not peace. Rather, it was to tactically delay hostility with a lesser enemy – Riyadh – to pivot all focus and resources towards confrontation with Israel. Escalation by the Iran-backed Houthis against Israel and the US since October 7 is a direct product of this.

But why now? The short answer: failed deterrence.

Based on the IRGC’s calculus, the US and Europe have zero appetite for confrontation with the regime in Iran and as a result will refrain from imposing any direct consequences on it. At most, Tehran has calculated that the US may strike its proxy positions in Syria and Iraq, but even here the US has only responded three times to more than 100 IRGC proxy attacks on its positions since October.

The US’s reluctance to impose direct consequences on Tehran to avoid escalation has had the opposite effect. It’s enabled the IRGC to coordinate and mobilise its terror network – from Hezbollah to proxies Syria and Iraq, as well as the Houthis – against Israel and the US to new levels without any repercussions.

But the worst is still to come. Tehran views October 7 as the start of a longer confrontation with Israel. Its doctrine is built around a long war that seeks to make Israel bleed slowly over a long period. Senior IRGC commanders have made no secret of this, stating: “The Palestinian operation is the beginning of the Resistance Axis’s movement to destroy Israel.”

To prevent this, the US must change the IRGC’s calculus. This means not only targeting IRGC positions in the region, but also making it clear to Khamenei that if this escalation does not stop, IRGC assets inside of Iran will be legitimate targets. Anything short of holding the regime in Iran – the source of terror – accountable is simply delaying future October 7s from happening again.

Kasra Aarabi is the Director of IRGC Research at United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI)