Israeli defence minister Yoav Gallant was set to meet with his American counterpart Lloyd Austin at the Pentagon on Wednesday, as I write. The topic of discussion? How should the IDF respond to Iran’s second ballistic missile barrage against Israel?
Israel’s decision is complex. On one hand, it knows that it needs to respond and that if it does not, Iran will think that it can continue to attack in the future. On the other hand, it must factor in the views of President Biden, who has made it clear that he opposes an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities or oil industry, believing diplomacy can still halt Iran’s march to a bomb and concerned an attack would spike global oil prices – a critical factor in the upcoming US presidential election, now just weeks away.
Moreover, coordination with the US is crucial for such a long-range mission. Iran sits at the edge of the Israeli Air Force’s operational combat range. While Israeli jets can reach and strike targets, their time over Iranian airspace will be limited even with mid-air refuelling – a capability not abundant in Israel’s Air Force fleet.
But launching an attack is just one part of the equation. Israel must also prepare for retaliatory Iranian missile and drone strikes. While Israel’s missile defence systems performed well during the recent attack and the earlier one in April, its stockpile of interceptors is limited. In the recent salvo, some missiles did hit Israeli military targets, underscoring the challenge.
Then there’s the need for ongoing US supplies of weapons and spare parts, without which Israel won’t be able to fight in whatever conflicts follow an airstrike on Iran. With growing calls for arms embargoes, especially from Europe, the need to retain American support is even more existential than it was in the past.
Despite these challenges, however, there is now a rare and historic opportunity to strike a significant blow against Iran and derail its decades-long pursuit of a nuclear capability.
There are three main reasons why action makes sense now. First, Iran must be taught a lesson. For years its leaders have operated under the belief they can attack Israel and Western targets with impunity. At worst, the only retaliation they have faced – if there even was any – was attacks against Iran’s proxies. This sense of invulnerability has emboldened Iran to strike at will.
To prevent further attacks, Iran must be made to pay a price.
Second, the current state of Hezbollah and Hamas offers an opportunity. These groups were created as deterrents to any action against Iran’s nuclear facilities. But now, without downplaying the threat – particularly from Hezbollah rockets – both have been significantly weakened. Israel can manage both fronts.
If ever there was an optimal time to strike, it is now.
Yes, Iran will retaliate, but Hezbollah and Hamas are currently degraded, meaning the fallout from an Israeli strike would be limited.
This is a brief window – roughly one to two years – during which Israel can strike Iran without the looming threat of immediate Hezbollah retaliation. Beyond that timeframe, Hezbollah would likely rearm, forcing Israel to face a renewed conflict with its Lebanese foe following any action against Iran.
Finally, time is running out. Iran is on the verge of crossing the nuclear threshold. It has enough enriched uranium for several bombs, and all that’s left is to further enrich its stockpile to military-grade levels. While assembling a warhead will take time, simply crossing that threshold may deter future action.
Israel must always consider global reactions, especially from the US, its main ally. But if there’s one lesson from the past year and the October 7 attacks, it’s that sometimes Israel must prioritise its security above all else. Sometimes, the decision is just that simple.
