Politicians are often telling us that we need to learn lessons from history. Like “following the science”, the idea that history provides some kind of template for political and diplomatic action is a seductive one, and gives leaders an impression of authority and wisdom. In the hands of politicians, history books are like tablets brought down from Mount Sinai, their pages carved with The Right Thing To Do.
One such leader was JFK, who, during the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962, was said to have drawn upon The Guns Of August by the American historian Barbara Tuchman. The thesis of this brilliant book, which had been published just a few months before the crisis, was simple — the First World War broke out because the great powers made a series of fatal miscalculations. In essence, the ensuing slaughter was the result of a series of massive cock-ups, rather than the product of deliberate bellicosity.
Kennedy immediately saw a parallel with the situation he faced. The world was on the brink of war, but the stakes were of course far higher than they were for the statesmen of 1914 — a cock-up in 1962 could have resulted in Armageddon. In his biography of JFK, Ted Sorensen recalled how the president often referred to “the 1914 conversation between two German leaders on the origins and expansion of that war, a former chancellor asking, ‘How did it all happen?’ and his successor saying: ‘Ah, if only one knew’.”
“If this planet,” said President Kennedy, “is ever ravaged by nuclear war — if the survivors of that devastation can then endure the fire, poison, chaos and catastrophe — I do not want one of these survivors to ask another, ‘How did it all happen?’ and to receive the incredible reply: ‘Ah, if only one knew’.” It appears that Kennedy really did regard the book as being like a tablet of commandments. Kennedy not only gave a copy to Harold Macmillan, but also wanted to give it to “every navy officer on every ship right now”, although he acknowledged that “they probably wouldn’t read it”. He also told his brother Bobby: “I am not going to follow a course that will allow anyone to write a comparable book about this time and call it The Missiles of October.” With the world now facing a similar crisis, and with an American president having to stare a Russian leader in the face to see who blinks first, it is tempting to ask whether Joe Biden can draw on the lessons of The Guns of August to solve the problem of Ukraine.
There is, however, a problem with the book, and quite a big one: Tuchman’s thesis has been scotched by historians for many years. Descended from two prominent New York Jewish families, including the Morgenthaus, Tuchman was often sniffily referred to as not being a “proper” historian and merely a “50-year-old housewife”. But the dismissal of her thesis was not because of who she was, but because she was plain wrong about the causes of the First World War. There is plenty of evidence unearthed in German archives that shows that Germany was spoiling for a fight, and that is why war broke out. Ironically then, Kennedy’s course of action in 1962 was partially directed by a book that misread history. He was led by a mistake, but ultimately the mistake saved the world.
Had Tuchman argued that the Kaiser was spoiling for a scrap, would Kennedy have therefore regarded Kruschev in the same light, and followed the advice of some of his more martial advisers by ordering a preemptive strike on Cuba? We can never know.
What then, can The Guns of August teach today’s president? Should Biden heed Tuchman’s thesis and ensure that he does his bit in making sure that a global war does not erupt because of a series of cock-ups? As the Americans would say, you bet. But Biden should surely also heed the correct thesis, and regard Putin as bellicose as the Kaiser and deal with him accordingly. A war caused by a series of mistakes is bad enough, but a war caused by presidential weakness and vacillation would surely be worse.
Guy Walters is a historian and journalist. Find him online @guywalters on Twitter
