Hakafot Shniyot, the extra round of dancing with Torah scrolls that takes place in various public venues in Israel on the evening after Simchat Torah, has now been politicised, like every other religious ceremony in Israel.

It would be hard for it not to be in a year in which motzei Simchat Torah just happened to fall 15 days before the election, especially as, with the High Holy Days finally over, campaigning finally began in earnest.

As various politicians ran around the country trying to put in as many appearances they could, there was one prime location. Kfar Chabad, five minutes from Ben Gurion Airport, has one of the largest Hakafot and the calibre of politicians attending was commensurate.
First on the scene was Defence Minister Benny Gantz, who was honoured to hold a Torah -— but also booed.

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Benjamin Netanyahu

His decision to go there is, to say the least, curious. Chabad, as a religious movement, is famously open to all Jews and claims to be non-political. A quick look at the voting in its major strongholds in Israel is informative.

In Kfar Chabad for example, in the election in March 2021, 58 per cent of the 2,810 valid votes cast were for the far-right Religious Zionism party, far eclipsing United Torah Judaism, the Ashkenazi ultra-Orthodox list, which received just 16 per cent. Together with Likud and Shas (which both won 11 per cent), the four parties of the Netanyahu bloc received 96 per cent of the Kfar Chabad vote.

So why was Mr Gantz wasting his precious campaigning time getting booed in a place where his Blue and White party won only four votes? Even the anti-vaxxer party led by a disbarred doctor got four times that.

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Gideon Sa'ar

After Mr Gantz’s visit came one by his co-leader of the National Unity list, Justice Minister Gideon Sa’ar (whose party did a bit better than Mr Gantz’s in Kfar Chabad with 12 votes).

Messrs Gantz and Sa’ar weren’t there in the hope of picking up Chabadnik votes. They came in the hope of boosting their claim to having a better chance of forming a coalition than Prime Minister Yair Lapid.

If the Netanyahu bloc fails again to win a majority then Mr Gantz wants the voters to believe that the ultra-Orthodox parties will then break with Benjamin Netanyahu and agree to join him instead. All the Charedi leaders have strenuously ruled out such an outcome and, as the polls are showing, centrist voters aren’t buying it either. The opinion polls show the Gantz-Sa’ar list languishing far behind Mr Lapid’s Yesh Atid.

An hour later the real King of Kfar Chabad turned up, to rapturous cheers: Itamar Ben Gvir, leader of Jewish Power and co-leader of Religious Zionism. He is the real reason for Religious Zionism’s popularity in such places and he received a rockstar’s welcome as he took to the stage.

But then something went wrong.

As Mr Ben Gvir was speaking, the master of ceremonies suddenly piped up: “We receive with blessing our friend, leader of the opposition and former prime minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu.” But no one came. “We receive with blessing,” he said once again. And again, an awkward silence.

At the edge of the stage there was a mini-commotion, between Mr Ben Gvir and Likud Knesset member Amir Ohana and a couple of other Chabad rabbis, embarrassingly caught by the live-feed cameras. Someone backstage was heard saying: “If Itamar doesn’t go down, he won’t go on stage.”

One of the rabbis then said: “Itamar, I’m asking you…” to which Mr Ben Gvir replied, “But you allowed Sa’ar…”

Finally he stepped down angrily and, as he left, Mr Netanyahu went onstage while the crowd chanted “Ben Gvir, Ben Gvir.”

It’s a complicated relationship. In the last two elections Mr Netanyahu used all his influence to force the disparate far-right parties — Mr Ben Gvir’s Jewish Power, Bezalel Smotrich’s National Union and even the tiny, openly homophobic Noam party ­— to run as a joint list, lest any right-wing votes be lost.

Back in August he even hosted emergency talks between Messrs Ben Gvir and Smotrich, brokering their agreement in a villa near his home in Caesarea. He regularly speaks with them over the phone to coordinate campaigning and on Succot had a meeting with Mr Ben Gvir in Jerusalem.

None of this is secret — and yet he has done everything possible not to be on the same stage together or to allow a joint photograph of them to be taken. (Interestingly, Mr Netanyahu has shared a platform with the Noam leader, Avi Maoz, but he is all but anonymous to the average Israeli, unlike Mr Ben Gvir.)

According to one insider, there is a dispute between Netanyahu’s top advisers on how close he should be seen with the Religious Zionism leaders.

There are those who believe that he needs to be more open about their alliance in order to remove any doubt among staunch right-wing voters that Mr Netanyahu would prefer to form a coalition with centrists instead.

Their argument is bolstered by the polls, which have Likud steadily losing voters to Religious Zionism, at the rate of one Knesset seat per each of the campaign’s four months so far.

The counter-argument is that Mr Ben Gvir is a red rag to “soft-right” voters who could be persuaded to go over to Mr Gantz’s party, thereby jeopardising the all-important majority.

Above all, Mr Netanyahu needs an overall majority for his camp, but he fears having to form a coalition in which the far right have too much influence. Which is where things seem to be heading now in the polls.

His compromise this week was to put out a campaign video in which he stoutly declared that “Lapid and Gantz are left. Likud won’t go with them, in rotation or any other way,” and said that he would form a coalition only with Shas, United Torah Judaism and Religious Zionism.

But at the same time he won’t be seen in public with Mr Ben Gvir and sent out his proxies to say in interviews that “if Religious Zionism is too big, even if we have 61 Knesset seats, we won’t form a coalition.”

Mr Netanyahu’s dilemma is that he needs his coalition for a majority but he fears he won’t get one if too many voters focus on his coalition.
It’s a delicate dance in an election which is likely to be decided on the most delicate of margins.