As we go to press, the world expects that an Iranian attack on Israel is imminent, whether direct or through its proxy, Hezbollah.
Iran’s overall strategy is clear; the regime is open about its aim of destroying “the Zionist entity”. Its “ring of fire” – surrounding Israel with IRGC units and proxies in Lebanon, Syria, Gaza, Iraq, and Yemen – is there for the world to see.
Yet, despite all the evidence and history, there remain those who think the best way to handle Iran is to embrace it through diplomacy and deals, even welcoming it as an equal in international institutions.
This week we reveal that a senior United Nations disarmament official appears to have secretly advised an IRGC general and held key positions at sanctioned institutions involved in Iran’s nuclear programme. It is yet another example of how hopelessly compromised the UN has become over Iran.
Last year, it appointed Iran to chair its Human Rights Council, and when President Raisi died in May, the General Assembly held a minute’s silence followed by Secretary-General António Guterres offering his condolences to the Iranian people for their loss – a truly grotesque embrace of a regime that has held the Iranian people under its control through brutal suppression of any dissent.
On Monday, Sir Keir Starmer spoke to the newly-installed Iranian president, Masoud Pezeshkian. According to the read-out of their conversation, the prime minister told him that war is in no one’s interest.
We do, of course, hope that Sir Keir’s words will have the desired effect, but the reality is that Iranian strategy and tactics are decided by the supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, and the words of a British prime minister are unlikely to carry much weight with him.
Sooner or later, Iran will launch another attack on Israel, America or other democratic allies. The way it has embedded itself at the UN will enable it to defuse criticism. It is all part of the strategy.