After a seemingly endless presidential campaign, it’s crunch time. And with poll margins razor thin, even small shifts among voters could have electoral consequences.

Republican Jewish Coalition spokesperson Sam Markstein told me, “Jewish Americans make up a larger share of voters than what the margin of victory was in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and Michigan in 2016 or 2020.”

Jewish voters will once again help decide those battleground states. So it matters that a recent Combat Antisemitism Movement poll found 43 per cent of Jewish respondents said “antisemitism will impact” their votes. Specifically, 7.3 per cent of respondents typically vote Democrat but will be voting Republican this month, with another 2.5 per cent voting for Donald Trump for president but Democrats in other ballots. Meanwhile, 3.9 per cent of respondents typically vote Republican but are going to vote Democrat, with another 4.3 per cent voting for Kamala Harris but Republicans down-ballot.

These are the election cycle’s most interesting voters. Jewish crossover voters dissatisfied with their traditional parties are course-correcting with their votes. I spoke to three of them to understand their thinking.

Recent Harvard graduate and activist Shabbos Kestenbaum, who spoke at the Republican National Convention, told me: “I am pro-choice, I believe in a $15 minimum wage and a variation of the Green New Deal. Yet none of these issues matter to me as much as the seven American hostages still being held in Gaza, rampant antisemitism on our campuses, and our families in Israel. President Trump, as imperfect as he may be, has met with us, told us what specifically he'll do to help, and elevated our voices. I wish I could say the same about Kamala Harris.” Addressing his “fellow liberal Jewish Americans,” Kestenbaum urged, “Stop allowing our party to take us for granted.”

Former Florida Democrat Congressman Peter Deutsch is also voting differently. Deutsch said that after having been "a Democratic elected official for 22 years,” delegate to two Democrat conventions, and mentor to two current Democrat leaders — including Pennsylvania’s Jewish governor — he’s “been in Pennsylvania since October 9, working for the Trump campaign and speaking to persuadable Jewish voters.” Deutsch observed: "Donald Trump is the first Republican I’ve ever endorsed in my life.”

Deutsch said he’s “crossing over as an American. I think this transcends Jewish/not Jewish.” He explained: “For me, this transcends all other issues. Achieving and maintaining peace is the most important thing the president does.” Deutsch pointed to the “peace and prosperity” of the Trump years, as compared to the “death and destruction” seen during the Biden-Harris administration. Trump’s cutting off funding to the Iranian regime versus Biden and Harris restoring it, the Iranian regime’s attempting to murder American officials, and Harris’ pride that her administration “stopped sending weapons systems to Israel” all informed Deutsch’s choice. In short, “one candidate gave money to people who want to kill my family, and the other was effective at keeping the world safe.”

Deutsch and Kestenbaum’s priorities are reflected in a recently released poll by conservative think tank the Manhattan Institute, which found that “security, Israel, and antisemitism are Harris’s weakest issue relative to former President Donald Trump among Jewish voters.” This poll found that 22 per cent of all Jewish voters — and Orthodox Jews especially — considered Harris’ “weakest issue” their own top issue.

On the flip side, there are some Jews who previously voted Republican but now support Harris. Noah Seton, a partner in a national market research company and a Massachusetts voter, is a fiscal and foreign policy conservative who left Trump’s GOP in 2016. Seton told me: “I’m voting for Harris next week” - in spite of policy disagreements. “I don't think she'll be a good president, and I think she's a pretty bad candidate. But Trump is terrible and beyond the pale.” Trump has four major flaws, according to Seton: his character, the “threat to democracy stuff,” Trump’s Ukraine position, and that “I don't actually trust Trump on Israel or anything else,” not believing Trump “supports Israel out of any actual principle.” So, Seton said, “I’ll hold my nose and vote for Harris, and then I'll hope that in 2028 I can vote for an actual conservative.”

It remains to be seen who will win this close contest. However, both the Manhattan Institute and the Jewish People Policy Institute expect Harris to be the Democrats’ worst performing candidate among Jewish voters since the 1980s.

It’s positive that more Jews are playing the (electoral) field. As a tiny minority, American Jewry’s wisest possible strategy remains insisting that all politicians compete for their votes.

Melissa Langsam Braunstein is a writer based in the Washington DC area

@slowhoneybee