The war on Israel’s northern border continues to escalate, highlighting the stark contrast between the threats posed by Hezbollah and Hamas, and how each is perceived and handled by the Israeli defence establishment.
In Gaza, Israel was blindsided by the Hamas attack on October 7. The country was not only shocked by the scale of the assault but also by the extent of Hamas’s weaponry and its vast network of underground tunnels, reaching more than 500 kilometres. In Lebanon, however, Israel has – so far – demonstrated an impressive level of intelligence penetration. The culmination of these efforts has been a series of successful strikes against Hezbollah, showing that Israel was far more prepared for the threats it faced on the northern front.
Last week’s remarkable pager attack temporarily disabled Hezbollah’s internal communication systems and resulted in thousands of casualties among mid-level commanders. This was followed by precision strikes on Hezbollah’s long-range missile systems and the targeted assassinations of key senior figures such as Ibrahim Aqil and Ahmed Wahbi.
These blows to Hezbollah’s leadership took Israel much longer to achieve in Gaza, where the IDF has struggled against an underestimated and well-entrenched terrorist enemy. This divergence demonstrates how deeply Israel had focused on the northern threat, perhaps to the detriment of its readiness in the south. It is a hard lesson learnt, as the events of October 7 showed Israel’s blindspot.
Israel now faces the challenge of not repeating that mistake. The IDF’s significant intelligence focus on Hezbollah is crucial, but there is a risk of being drawn too deeply into a prolonged fight in Lebanon. If Israel’s strategy of gradual escalation fails – if Hezbollah refuses to de-escalate – there may be no option but for Israel to launch a full-scale ground invasion into southern Lebanon. Such an operation, like the campaign in Gaza, would be fraught with difficulty, requiring immense resources and manpower. The terrain in Lebanon is different, and Hezbollah is a formidable enemy with years of experience from its involvement in the Syrian civil war. If this happens, Hamas will use Israel’s preoccupation in the north to reconstitute itself in the Gaza Strip. The group has already shown its ability to adapt and grow, even under constant siege, and IDF intelligence indicates that Hamas has found new revenue streams, for example by seizing humanitarian aid meant for Gaza’s civilian population and selling it back to them at inflated prices. According to some estimates, these funds might already exceed what Hamas once collected through local taxes.
A second, equally pressing risk is that Israel’s focus on Hezbollah could lead to neglecting one of the primary objectives of the war in Gaza – the rescue of hostages. One hundred and one Israelis remain in Hamas captivity, and intelligence suggests that roughly half of them are still alive. The possibility of bringing them home is a tangible goal even while a deal has remained elusive.
Officially, Israel claims it is prepared to negotiate. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently said that pressure on Hezbollah could lead to progress on the hostage front. But the reality is more complicated. Political considerations have drawn out negotiations, and Hamas is in no rush to make a deal. From Hamas’s perspective, there is little incentive to negotiate when Israel’s military attention has shifted to the north. In addition, Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar has long dreamed of igniting a regional war, drawing Hezbollah and other factions into a broader conflict with Israel. With that ambition potentially becoming a reality, it is unlikely that he would pursue a deal now that could result in a ceasefire in both Gaza and the north.
Despite the increasing tensions with Hezbollah, Israel cannot afford to lose focus on Gaza. The northern front is undeniably important – some would argue existential – but it cannot come at the cost of unfinished business in the south. Israel’s objectives in Gaza are clear: the hostages must be returned, and Hamas must be replaced as the ruling entity.
This situation puts Israel’s government and military at a crossroads, torn between two urgent and deadly fronts. Hezbollah remains a grave threat, but Gaza is far from over.
Israel’s future security may very well depend on how it balances these two fronts and whether it can resist the temptation to focus on one while ignoring the other. Both conflicts are crucial, but Israel’s victory, on either front, will be hard to see if the hostages remain in Hamas captivity.
Victory will not come easily, but it must be decisive, comprehensive, and, above all, complete.
