Israel and its Western allies should now strike back against Iran

Iran has been increasingly carrying out missile attacks on countries in the last decade. It targeted Kurdish dissidents in northern Iraq in 2018, it launched drones and cruise missiles at Saudi Arabia in 2019, and targeted US troops in Iraq in 2020.

In 2024 it also targeted Syria and Pakistan, claiming to be using ballistic missiles against militant groups. Iran’s attacks on Israel are unprecedented in size. The attack on October 1 involved 180 missiles, the largest ballistic missile attack in history.

In April Israel was urged not to respond to the Iranian attack. Saudi Arabia also did not respond to the Iranian attack on Abqaiq in 2019. This has led Iran to feel that it has a privilege to attack whenever it wants and terrorize the region. It has exported ballistic missiles and ballistic missile technology to the Houthis in Yemen. They have used the missiles to attack Saudi Arabia and Israel. It has moved missile technology to Iraqi militias and to Hezbollah.

Iran must be deterred from more attacks. It is time for Israel and Israel’s partners and allies to strike back. The strikes on Iran should not just be a quiet operation because a quiet small precision strike will leave Iran feeling it has still won because it can pretend the incident didn’t happen. What this means is that a “cyberattack” or some kind of small explosion somewhere, is not enough. Iran needs to feel a setback to its ballistic missile program or to its energy facilities or some other kind of strategic infrastructure.

The Iranian people, most of whom oppose the regime, should see the response. This will threaten the regime more than any attack on a regime S-300 battery or on some regime bunker in a mountain somewhere. When Iranians see that their regime is a paper tiger they will be emboldened. This means a response to the attack should involve something that doesn’t harm Iranian civilians but which civilians can see. Israel retaliated against Houthi missile attacks by striking a port in Yemen. Israel has retaliated against Hezbollah by eliminating Hezbollah commanders in Beirut. Israel was also blamed for exploding pagers that harmed thousands of Hezbollah activists. This is how Lebanon sees that Hezbollah is a menace and also a weak organization that cannot protect its own.

The Iranian regime is a menace to the region. Its use of long range missiles has threatened the Gulf and many western allies. Iran even got China to broker reconciliation with Saudi Arabia over the last two years. Iran is on the march in the region with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps precisely because most countries are afraid of Iran and don’t think the west or others will protect them. For instance, anyone sitting in a Gulf country today can see videos of the ballistic missile attack on Israel and imagine such an attack on the gleaming towers of the Gulf. They know Iran can lay waste peaceful cities. They also see that Iran is conducting a joint military drill with Oman, according to a report at Iranian state media on October 1. They know that Iran’s president is flying to Qatar. They see how Iran is on the march. For this reason the region needs to see a response to the Iranian attack on Israel. They need to see that Iran can no longer get away with attacks on every country in the Middle East.

Iran’s ballistic missile program is now a major threat to the region and the world. Iran is working with Russia to export military technology and drones to Moscow. Iran is threatening the Gulf and the US. Iran’s missiles could one day carry nuclear weapons. Iran has shown its strength and likely hides more surprises in its missile facilities at home. It is time for Iran to receive a response.