Iran's Revolutionary Guards claimed responsibility for a dozen ballistic missiles that struck Iraq's Kurdish regional capital of Erbil in the early hours of Sunday. By the looks of it, there is nothing Iran can do that would derail Team Biden's commitment to a deal with Iran.
Yesterday, Iran launched missiles that threatened U.S. personnel and facilities in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. Today we have seen top U.S. Government officials downplay and to some extent excuse Iran's aggression. This attack alone should make the Biden administration end attempts to revive the Iran nuclear deal. Iran has repeated these attacks many times and the silence of the international community in the face of these cowardly attacks will pave the way for their continuation.
Tehran holds president Joe Biden in contempt. Even Donald Trump’s critics can admit that Tehran knew if they threatened American interests Trump would follow through with a response. While Biden's method has been to strike very low priority Iranian targets in Syria, every time it has been in response to a direct threat.
When Biden took office, one of the first things he did was to pledge to revive the Obama doctrine of de-escalation with Iran (and the Muslim Brotherhood), even directly or indirectly offered them to become international partners through sanctions relief and the JCPOA in 2015. The Mullahs didn't take him seriously.
Since taking office, President Biden has repeatedly done everything possible to appease Iran. One of his first acts in office was to remove the Iran-backed Houthi from the Foreign Terrorists Organizations listing. If not for Russia’s demands for sanctions relief following its invasion of Ukraine, we would have likely already seen a revival of the nuclear deal, with sanctions relief of Iran’s leading terrorists and terror financiers, billions of dollars handed over, delisting of IRGC and their proxies.
But Putin’s demands froze the process, since Biden has essentially given full negotiating control to Russia.
Compared to Russia’s threat to NATO, the ongoing energy crisis, and the threat of an ensuing global food shortage, a new deal with Iran should be a low priority and Tehran knows that. The deal is not likely to last more than 10 months, since the power in Congress is expected to change hands in November.
The mullahs must be livid, and a way to express their anger is to attack one of the US' most vulnerable allies.
Tehran has many causes for concern at the moment, not only because the US is unlikely to be able to deliver on the deal in the long term, but because Israel have been busy mending fences with Turkey- making plans for a new pipeline with Turkey, undermining Iran’s energy ambitions and threatening the cooperation between Tehran and Ankara, at least in the short-term, until the crucial Turkey elections in 2023.
Iran has managed, despite its economic weakness, to become a major regional player, in part by pitting other countries against each other, as they did recently with Turkey and the UAE. An attack on Kurdistan Region and U.S. Targets was predictable, after every Iranian failure lately and following recent attacks on US forces in the UAE, ascribed to Houthis.
The prospects for a new nuclear deal are already on life support, which threatens Iran’s plans to take advantage of a windfall in the next three years. To put pressure on the negotiators, Iran quickly reverted to its usual violence and chaos.
This has been Iran's game in Iraq,Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and Kurdistan Region.
Last night Iran could have relied on its proxies in Iraq to conduct a strike, as they have done many times before. But that wouldn't have been in Iran's favor, and Iran felt the need to send a direct message, for the first time since 2020 – after Soleimani was killed.
The message was aimed not only at the Biden administration, and other negotiators in Vienna, but also at Israel.
Iran explained the attack as retaliation for Israel’s destruction of two Iranian targets in Syria recently. Its aggression towards Jerusalem is becoming more brazen over time, as previously Iran avoided even a possibility of direct confrontations with Israel. Iran is underscoring that Israel cannot rely on the US under Biden to defend its interests or to push back against Iran’s growing aggression overall.
Equally worrisome is that Tehran never made the distinction between the US and Israel, nor explained why the retaliation against Israel involved the targeting of a US consulate.
The underlying message here is the antisemitic nature of the regime which it has been explicit about in its propaganda – that Israel controls US foreign policy, and that therefore by attacking one, it is messaging the other.
Iran has correctly calculated that Biden is too overwhelmed with Ukraine to do anything about their terror attacks. Furthermore, it is counting on Biden’s desperation to bring the nuclear deal to a close as a major accomplishment before the midterm elections.
But in the end Biden has limited options. He can either exercise deterrence through strong and devastating strikes against IRGC targets in Iran, Iraq and Kurdistan Region, or to continue to capitulate and to lose on all fronts.
The Ukraine crisis has also exposed another flaw in President Biden's Iran strategy. Washington has engaged with China and Russia as if they have similar positions on Iran, whereas Beijing and Moscow have been working with Iran to undermine the US leadership and alliances.
This was confirmed by the Iranian regime a couple of weeks ago, when Mahmoud Abbaszadeh-Meshkini, a spokesman for the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, said: “In the new world order, a triangle consisting of three powers—Iran, Russia, and China—has formed.” He was clear about the goal: “This new arrangement heralds the end of the inequitable hegemony of the United States and the West.”
As usual the Biden administration wasn't listening, but the recent developments could finally force the issue to the fore.
The normalization deals between the UAE, Bahrain and Israel have created a more stable platform for the region’s like-minded countries to cooperate against Iranian-backed aggression, in the form of violent proxies such as Hezbollah and Hamas. Still, US backing and leadership are needed. All three countries are small and can have limited impact against Iran and all of its regional proxies. A bigger player is needed in terms of resources and political leadership and impact
There is also a potential for coordination with non-state actors and allies, such as Kurds. Understandably, the Kurds feel let down by US actions over the last 5 years; however, there is still the potential to foster a close alliance with them. US should play carrot and stick with AANES, offering greater support for the Self Administration but demand they cut all links and ties to the PKK, or alternatively demand a much greater integration of the Syrian and Turkish Kurds, move away from the pro-Russia and pro-Iran history of the PKK, and a restructuring of this organization in compliance with common interests in these matters. Infighting and contradictory messaging by assorted Kurdish factions are easily exploited by the adversaries, who, by contrast, are working in concert.
A stable, unified and autonomous Rojava is potentially a silver lining of the very dark cloud of violence in Syria over the past decade.
An independent Kurdistan in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq would act as a bulwark against the Iranian regime, likely forming a close partnership with the alliance already blossoming between the Gulf states and Israel. Simultaneously it would be something that could enable to curb Russian influence in the region without a large American troop presence in the region through a strong Kurdish state.
Second, countering the narrative of political Islam across the region should be a major strand of the Middle East policy. Obama sought an accommodation with groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood, failing to recognize the illiberal undemocratic societies they sought to implement. Biden can undo Obama´s devastating mistakes. Biden should make repudiating the damaging impacts of Islamism a top priority of his administration's Middle East policy.
