Arab countries' declining strength will be a factor as Israelis head to the polls

As populations continue to grow, water resources are rapidly dwindling too and an ever increasing youth bulge is creating an angry, disillusioned and demoralised younger generation contending with steadily rising levels of unemployment.

Israel, therefore, faces a potentially insecure environment and the question Israelis must ask themselves is what, if anything, they can they do about it.

If in the past Israel was concerned by Arab power, it is now its weakness of that challenges Israeli security. Arab decline has paved the way for Iranian expansionism at the expense of the Arabs and of Israel too, thereby creating common interests that provide the foundation for a set of mainly informal relationships between Israel and some of the Sunni Arab states who are as worried as Israel, if not more so, by Shia Iran’s regional designs.

Israel cannot solve the problems of the Arabs but it can contribute to the wellbeing and stability of its most immediate neighbours in the West Bank and Gaza. It has nothing to gain from their underdevelopment, poverty and humanitarian distress and the accompanying unrest that this predicament might provoke.

Improving the lot of the Palestinians may also help to upgrade and even formalise relations with Israel’s Sunni allies and enhance cooperation versus Iran.

The Israeli dilemma, however, is rooted in the difficult choice between avoiding risk in an era of great uncertainty, and taking advantage of the opportunities offered by the relative weakness of the Arabs.

wo main schools of thought govern Israeli politics: the centre-left and the right. The centre left believes in the launching an Israeli political, diplomatic and economic initiative designed to improve the security and economic situation in the West Bank and Gaza.

This would be to internationally mobilise a sort of mini-Marshall plan especially for Gaza while also reducing the Israeli footprint in the West Bank, in order to preserve the option of a future two state solution.

It does not necessarily mean actually creating a two-state solution, which might not be possible in the present state of internal Palestinian dissention, but it does mean taking action, unilaterally if need be, to avoid a one-state reality and to secure Israel’s long-term Jewish and democratic character by gradually undoing Israel’s control of millions of Palestinians.

The Israeli right, on the other hand, tends to focus more on the risk factor. From the right’s point of view, such an Israeli initiative might only further enhance Hamas’s control of Gaza and perhaps even strengthen their hand in the West Bank too.

Israeli concessions might also project an image of weakness to the Palestinians and to Iran and its proxies in Lebanon and elsewhere.

For them, therefore, it would be better to batten down the hatches and block any possible inroads for Hamas and Iran that could undermine Israeli security at a time of great regional uncertainty.

At the moment, it is the right that seems to have the upper hand in the Israeli domestic debate. The general public appears to be more attentive to the threats and challenges of the short term than the opportunities that might be available in a long term strategic vision. After the polls on April 9 we will have a better idea of where the Israelis stand.

Asher Susser is Professor Emeritus of Middle Eastern History at Tel Aviv University and will be in London for TAU Trust’s “University for a Night” on March 13