On November 2, either Kemi Badenoch or Robert Jenrick will succeed Rishi Sunak as leader of the Conservative Party.

They face the momentous task of overturning their party’s comprehensive routing at the last general election and have the added challenge of contending with Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party.

In the immediate aftermath of Boris Johnson’s walloping of Jeremy Corbyn and Labour at the 2019 general election – the biggest Conservative victory since 1987 – few would have anticipated the reversal of fortunes for the so-called “natural party of government” at July’s election. From 365 seats in 2019 to a paltry 121 in 2024.

However, a trend which is highly likely to continue – regardless of which of the two Tory contenders becomes leader of the opposition – is the Conservative criticism that the government is overly punitive of Israel.

Shortly after Labour’s decision to ban some arms sales to Israel in September, Rishi Sunak repeated what was essentially Jewish communal criticism of the move at Prime Minister’s Questions.

Badenoch, a former business and trade secretary who was ultimately responsible for issuing arms export licences while in office, accused Starmer of “using and politicising the law for political ends” adding that: “It is not true that the removal of Israel arms licences was a legal decision. Keir Starmer should not hide behind this fig leaf. It was *very* much a political decision … I saw the legal advice.”

Jenrick, who has also attacked the government over arms sales, slammed Labour for restoring funding to controversial Palestinian UN agency Unrwa, an act celebrated by Foreign Secretary David Lammy at his party’s annual conference in September. Under the Tories, the UK stopped funding Unrwa in January 2024 after Israel accused its employees of participating in the October 7 attacks.

The former home office minister, whose wife was born in Israel, has generated headlines by running around, semi-playfully, in a hoodie that said: “Hamas are terrorists”, and attacked those – including Sky News presenter Kay Burley – who criticised him for doing so.

Put bluntly, Badenoch and Jenrick, both of whom have been at pains to demonstrate their pro-Israel credentials throughout this lengthy leadership campaign, and who are not exactly afraid of a political dust-up, are unlikely to remain silent should they see an opportunity to attack Labour on the issue.

One Labour source who spoke to the JC acknowledged that the Tories could use the government’s stance towards Israel as a wedge to criticise them. But the source claimed they would be wrong to do so because the topic was “too important to be used as a political football” and “the public don’t want to see people playing politics with matters of war and peace and the national security of the UK.” They added: “Those who want to use them to open a new front in the culture wars show nothing more than their unfitness for office.”

They admitted that Labour’s approach to Israel in government has “so far provided rather too much material for the Tories to get their teeth into”, but hit back at the Conservatives’ own record in government including the UK’s voting record at the UN, a failure to tackle the threat Tehran poses and the “unhindered glorification of terrorism on the streets of Britain”.

All reasonable points, but it is questionable whether Starmer will indeed be tackling any of them. Indeed, Politico reported last week that the government was set to ignore calls to proscribe Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), despite calling for the group’s proscription in opposition.

Furthermore, Labour is under intense pressure to adopt a more critical policies against Israel. Over 20 Labour MPs are calling on their own frontbench to completely suspend arms sales to Israel.

Green Party MPs and the newly formed Independent Alliance – made up of former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn and four MPs elected on pro-Gaza stances in constituencies with a substantial number of Muslim voters – are not shy of using their time in Parliament to demand tough action against the Jewish state.

By while trying to satisfy everyone, Labour has so far managed to frustrate both supporters and critics of Israel.

With either Badenoch or Jenrick standing opposite Starmer at the dispatch box, we can expect more criticism of the government should it decide to follow other European socialist parties and take a more hardline approach to Israel in government.