Brexit was the result that was never supposed to happen. As the results rolled in from across the country it became clear that, once again, the collective assumption of a Remain win, one that had been shaped by the opinion polls, betting markets and economists, was wrong. David Cameron lost his latest gamble by nearly four points across the UK but by nearly seven points in England, where the contest was not even close.
The domestic political implications of the result are nothing short of momentous. The outcome has revived a constitutional crisis in Scotland, created a new one in Ireland, triggered the virtual collapse of the Labour Party and pushed the Conservative Party in a firmly Eurosceptic direction. But the vote has also cast a long shadow over Europe.
Before the vote, one of the big fears in most of Europe's capitals was of a so-called "contagion effect", the idea that Brexit might embolden anti-EU (and primarily anti-immigrant) parties in other European states, further eroding public support for the EU and fuelling xenophobia. Such fears are grounded in a realisation that the vote for Brexit is primarily, although not exclusively, driven by public anxieties over immigration.
In the aftermath of Britain's decision, it is already possible to identify the coming problem. In the immediate days following the result, I counted no less than seven European countries where parties of varying strengths had called for their own referendums, either on the Euro single currency or EU membership more broadly.
These parties include ones like Marine Le Pen's National Front, which has a well-documented tradition of antisemitism. But they also include Geert Wilders' Party for Freedom in the Netherlands, which is more focused on Islam; the Slovakian People's Party; Sweden Democrats and also Beppe Grillo's populist Five Star Movement, which only a few weeks ago enjoyed a very strong set of local elections. Not all of these parties cultivate anti-immigrant feeling but many do, and they will be more than willing to follow the Vote Leave model - a campaign that towards polling day was more than willing to mobilise public angst over the possible accession of Turkey as well as the coming accession of Serbia, Albania and Montenegro.
Such parties will struggle to instal a national referendum in the near future, although it is worth noting that according to opinion polls, in countries like Austria and the Netherlands radical right, anti-EU parties and openly xenophobic parties are sitting comfortably in first place. Others, like the antisemitic and anti-Roma Jobbik movement in Hungary are hoping to emulate these gains by presenting a more "moderate" and less toxic front.
Europe is now heading into a complex set of national elections in France, Germany and the Netherlands, and is looking anxiously at the 2019 European Parliament elections, where such parties tend to prosper.
More broadly, the European Union should reflect on some new survey data from the Pew Research Centre which suggests that Euroscepticism is surging - no less than 42 per cent of voters across ten European democracies now want to have powers returned to their national parliaments. Brexit will not automatically lead to a wave of referendums and an eventual loss of public faith in the entire EU, but one thing is currently clear: the warning signs for such a public revolt are clearly visible.
