“When Netanyahu left Washington, we felt that he was headed towards a hostage deal. But now we don’t know what his plans are”. This was what US officials told me two weeks ago, after the Israeli prime minister’s visit to Washington – a time frame which might as be years ago, with the pace of current events in the Middle East.
This was not just the impression of US officials. Officials in Israel’s coalition government had the same feeling, that Netanyahu is just waiting for the Knesset to be in recess to say “yes” to a hostage deal, when none of the coalition members can break it and lead Israel to early elections. The assumption was that he would tell Smotrich and Ben Gvir: Listen guys, you can’t take down the coalition in any case, so wait 42 days until phase one of the deal ends and then see if Israel returns to fight or not.
As it was, Israeli negotiators had it made clear to Hamas that they should not pay too much attention to Netanyahu’s statements regarding the negotiations, because most of them are for internal political reasons.
That was the feeling two weeks ago. Then things changed. First, some of the Israelis involved in the negotiations began blaming Netanyahu for adding new demands which made a deal almost impossible. Then on July 31 an explosion rocked northern Tehran, killing Ismail Haniyeh.
The US was not given advance warning, and some reports suggest Israel was taking advantage of an opportunity that suddenly arose after weeks of preparations. I understand that, while the Biden administration shed no tears over Haniyeh, they did raise their eyebrows: “Why now, when we are so close to a deal?”.
The deal negotiators, Qatar and Egypt, went one step further. The Qatari PM tweeted a rare attack, saying: “How can mediation succeed when one party assassinates the negotiator on other side?”. It was a question many have asked, given that Ismail Haniyeh was the point man used by the Qataris regarding a deal – even though any final decision would be made in the Gaza tunnels.
But the talks didn’t blow up. Yes, Hamas issued angry statements. Yes, the talks paused. Israel, however, continued talking with the negotiators – even though the Qataris refused to come to a meeting in Cairo that was convened at the request of the Biden administration. “It was a meeting for the sake of a meeting”, one official with knowledge of the talks told me. “To show things are still alive”.
As for the claim that Netanyahu raised new demands on the already agreed draft from May: I understand that in a meeting last Wednesday, the lead Israeli negotiators slammed Netanyahu. “I think it’s time to finalise a deal”, said the IDF chief of the staff Herzi Halevi. “We feel that on the one hand you are sending us to negotiate, and on the other hand you are making changes to the proposal”, was how the head of the Shin Bet, Ronen Bar, put it. “You are adding considerations that are not in the interests of a deal. There will be no deal with the terms you want to add, and you know that”, said defence minister Gallant. It was a heated meeting that lasted several hours.
But is Netanyahu really adding new demands? One of the negotiating team told me, ”The feeling is that Netanyahu is insisting on issues that need weeks to be dealt with, and the hostages don’t have the time.” But Major General Nitzan Alon, a member of the Israeli negotiating team, said to families of the hostages: “There have been no new demands raised since May. Netanyahu asked for clarifications. Even if I don’t agree with him on some of the issues, he has not raised new demands”.
So the question now is what comes next. Netanyahu is insisting on three things. First, that after Phase One, which will include the release of 33 hostages over 42 days, Israel will be allowed to resume fighting if there is no agreement on Phase Two.
Second, that Israel will not leave either the Philadelphi corridor or the Rafah border crossing, and that armed terrorists will not be allowed to return from the south to the north of Gaza and there will be some kind of inspection mechanism to guarantee this.
“The deal on the table now is the same as it was on May 27”, a diplomatic source told me. “But the clarifications the Israelis are asking for take time, because you need to go back to Hamas and then return with an answer”.
So the talks seemed stalled – but many think this is just temporary, not least because at the moment, any progress towards a deal will have to wait until Iran’s response to Haniyeh’s assassination and Hezbollah’s retaliation for the death of its number two, Fuad Shukr.
As a senior opposition figure told me this week: “I think in the end Netanyahu will go for the deal. After these two assassinations he can portray himself as a strong leader, and at some point he will claim: ‘I got what I wanted from the deal’. And remember – Netanyahu doesn’t like wars and uncertainty.
A deal is also his way to find a solution to the tension with Hezbollah and to be able to return those evacuated from the north to their homes.”
Amichai Stein is the diplomatic correspondent for Israeli TV Channel Kan 11
