Last year began in the Middle East under the dark clouds of the Hamas massacre that had occurred in October 2023, and the resulting war in Gaza. New Year’s Day 2024 started with a large barrage of Hamas rockets being fired just after midnight – timed to try to show Israel that it could not win the war.
Hamas is still trying to fire rockets into Israel, a year on. On December 28 it fired two long-range rockets from northern Gaza, setting off alarms across communities between Jerusalem and Gaza.
These few rockets were likely from a stock of that have been sitting around since October 2023, buried and ready to be fired. Hamas has had a hard time rebuilding its rocket arsenal since. However, the terrorist group continues to hold 100 hostages.
The continuing war in Gaza is, of course, not the only thing taking place in the Middle East. The Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen continue to attack both Israel and shipping in the Red Sea. Hezbollah is still making trouble in Lebanon.
But there are bright spots. The Assad regime in Syria was overthrown on December 8. It melted away and seemed to fall apart within a few days, almost as if it had never existed.
This was a strange way for the regime to collapse and is a reminder that authoritarian structures rot from the inside and can appear stronger than they really are. The Assad regime survived with backing from Russia and Iran. It was propped up with the help of Iranian-backed militias in Iraq. However, it was a rotting door and all that had to be done to destroy it was to kick it in.
The fall of the Assad regime could bring some hope to the region. Perhaps things can change. Perhaps Hamas might collapse as well, with the right sort of decisive action. Iran is weakened by the decline of Assad and other problems it faces economically.
In December Iran’s foreign minister flew to Beijing to participate in a round of talks with his Chinese counterpart.
They also discussed the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, one of the economic groups that Iran has sought to become a part of, alongside BRICS, the international organisation comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the United Arab Emirates.
Iran wants to orient itself toward the east and work with Russia and China. Its move toward China is part of the new world order that is emerging as countries move to challenge the West and the US.
Another factor is that Iran has seen its proxies weakened and it knows it wasted huge resources on Hezbollah, Assad, the Houthis and Iraq. It hollowed out Iraq, Yemen, Lebanon and Syria and bankrupted them. Then Iranian-backed militias fed off these countries until there was nothing left.
Lebanon is a disaster because of Hezbollah. Yemen is a disaster because of the Houthis. The only truly successful part of Iraq is the Kurdistan region where Iran’s militias are not present. Iran is a predatory regime that has destroyed the Middle East – and many countries now understand this. They see the ruin in Gaza and in Syria and understand Iran’s hands are behind this.
Could this ruin lead to a new birth of hope in the region? The Arab Spring was supposed to be that hope but it ended in civil wars and bloodshed. Today, things have changed. People have learned the lessons from al-Qaeda and Islamic State. Perhaps they have learned the lessons from what Hamas has brought on Gaza. If they have, they should begin to speak up. They should throw off the shackles of Iran’s policies. People should wake up in Gaza and realise that “resistance” has brought them ruin. Iran wants to use others as tools and proxies. It mobilises people and denies them a university education, handing them an AK-47 rather than a diploma. Iran sends legions of people to fight in worthless wars so that Tehran’s regime can relax while others perish.
Israel has borne the brunt of this tragedy with the October 7 attack. Syria has also suffered, as have the Lebanese and Iraqis, as well as people in Yemen. There may be hope that the tide is turning. As we all know, the tide does not change quickly. It changes slowly, imperceptibly. Then it inches its way out, uncovering new land until it finally flows away.
The tide did not turn in the Second World War quickly. Who could have known in the ruins of Stalingrad or at El-Alamein that a new dawn was rising? Who could know today that in the ruins of Gaza perhaps there is hope? In the ruins of many cities in Syria, destroyed by 13 years of civil war, there may be hope.
Young leaders are emerging. Ahmed Shara’a, the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, led his group to victory over Assad.
He has made statements that speak of a new inclusive Syria, free from Iran. He has spoken about incorporating Kurds and Druze and other groups into the new Syria.
It’s true his background is that of an extremist. But extremists can change. He may be seeking to change. We should trust, but verify, as the proverb says.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is another young leader in the region. Together, these younger leaders might point the way to a new Middle East unshackled from past decades. Israel has a role to play here as a pioneering state with hi-tech industry. Other countries such as the UAE and the Gulf states have much to offer. There will be countries that want to spoil this optimism. However, it is worth pausing and having hope for the future.
Seth J. Frantzman is the senior Middle East analyst for the Jerusalem Post, an adjunct Fellow at The Foundation for Defense of Democracies and author of The October 7 War: Israel’s Battle for Security in Gaza
