As a tyrannical regime grabs the world’s attention in Ukraine, it also seeks to ensure another benefits from the international focus on the unfolding atrocity. The bloodshed of Russia’s invasion warns us to stay tough with Iran in the current negotiations to bring it to heel.
Anyone doubting the folly of trying to appease Tehran as it pursues its own international terror campaign and nuclear ambitions need only observe Vladimir Putin’s pitiless onslaught.
Such despotic regimes bend only when facing international unity and dire financial and political consequences for their actions. Yet as negotiations in Vienna are finalised, the imminent agreement with Iran threatens to be even weaker than the original 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan Of Action (JCPOA). In its apparent desperation to secure a deal, the West looks likely to agree to Russia’s demands to be a signatory, and its self-serving terms for doing so. This would entrust the region’s future to two pathologically anti-Western, anti-democracy regimes; three, if you include China.
Russia’s motivation differs dramatically from the West, as shown by its insistence that any pact guarantees its right to trade with Iran. The sanctions meted out on Russia only increase its need to sell arms and nuclear expertise to a friendly Iran that has conveniently backed its warmongering.
With the US barred from the negotiating room, discussion has been filtered through Russia’s chief negotiator Mikhail Ulyanov, who has confessed amazement at the concessions given.It would have been preferable if Russia were not involved, either as signatory or kingmaker. The next best option would be to walk away, but this is equally unlikely. Instead, we face a Russian-influenced package, likely to be a far cry from repeated pledges that the JCPOA replacement would be a “longer, stronger” deal. So-called “sunsets” ending restrictions to Iran’s nuclear programme and military force are already elapsing and scheduled to lift entirely by 2031. The new deal looks likely to retain this dangerous timeline, giving Iran a short, clear and legal pathway to a nuclear bomb.
The original JCPOA’s mistake of offering Iran cash windfalls and a green light for foreign investment also looks likely to be repeated. A weak deal will embolden Iran to advance its own malign projects in the region, bankroll terrorist proxies and foment regional conflict. In response, Arab states are likely to pursue their own nuclear programs. Israel too will be much more threatened.
Only tough new measures are likely to bring Iran back from the brink. There should be no sanctions relief merely to reward negotiating; the West must see results first. Either we return to the principle of zero enrichment or reprocessing and insist on full inspection and verification, or risk a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. Tehran’s unacceptable non-nuclear behaviour funding terrorism and ignoring international law must be addressed in parallel to the new agreement.
Ironically, the UK’s recent dovish relationship with Iran’s banking sector puts it in a strong position to leverage power. Like other European countries, in recent years the UK has compromised its sanctions partnership with the US to help keep blacklisted Iranian banks afloat in London.
Incredibly, London’s “Square Mile” district is home to more Iranian bank branches than any city outside Iran. Three operating within a stone’s throw of the Bank of England are under US sanctions, and hold £1bn in assets, two-and-a-half times the £400m debt for which Iran is holding British teacher Nazanine Zaghari-Ratcliffe hostage.
Tehran does not care about the cash. It has far more tied up in London as things stand. Yet it flouts international law and antagonises its greatest Western business partner by holding Ms Zaghari-Ratcliffe hostage for two reasons.
First, Ayatollah Khamenei has determined the UK is a pushover, leaving no risk in squeezing it for all it is worth. Second, if Tehran can blackmail the UK to cough up, it gains a valuable symbolic victory by forcing the government to pay the Iranian military industrial complex directly.
As Boris Johnson recently told Israeli President Isaac Herzog, the world is running out of time to deal with Iran before it is able to produce on very short order enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon. The damage being inflicted on Russia shows the power of cutting off access to financial markets as a weapon. It is now up to the UK to reimpose sanctions on Iran’s banks immediately. Taking this path could yet save the negotiations from disaster and bring another pariah state with nuclear intentions back from the brink.
Former US Ambassador to the UN Mark Wallace is CEO of think tank United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI). Daniel Roth is Research Director of UANI
