What’s been happening in the borough of Castle Point in Essex offers a clue. According to the 2011 national census, there were 183 Jews living in the area.
But over the past decade, the number more than tripled to 661 in 2021, according to the recently released results of the latest population survey. The reason for this spectacular rise is the new Charedi Jewish community in Canvey Island in the Thames estuary, which began moving out of Stamford Hill seven years ago.
For a second decade in succession, British Jewry has grown, reversing the narrative of numerical decline that had been the theme for around a half a century.
The total of Jews in England and Wales who ticked the optional religion box in the last census rose by 2.4 per cent from 265,073 in 2011 to 271,327 ten years later. And that is almost certainly due to the thriving Charedi communities with their large families.
Of course, the census does not break down into denominations, but the areas where the Charedi population is concentrated continue to show growth: Hackney and Haringey in North London; to some extent Barnet in North-West London; Salford and, to a lesser extent, Bury in Greater Manchester — as well as the settlement of Canvey Island. (The one anomaly is the yeshivah town of Gateshead, in Tyne and Wear, that recorded a slight drop, which demographers are looking to explain).
When the figures for Scotland and Northern Ireland (probably around 6,000) become available, and analysts have also worked how many Jews identified themselves ethnically rather than religiously as well as factoring in estimates for those who did not answer the religion question or identify as ethnically Jewish, the UK’s overall Jewish population will be close to 300,000.
The rise of the Charedim may again be the headline but it is not the only story. Twice as many Jews in the last census described themselves as ethnically Jewish as in 2011 (67,994 compared to 33,770). Unlike the religion question, “Jewish” is not specifically listed as a category —you have to answer “other” and insert the detail.
A decade ago, three out of every four Jews who identified as ethnic also answered the religion question. If the proportion who identify solely as ethnic increases this time, that would indicate a rise in secularism — similar to trends among American Jewry. We will learn more about the religious profile of British Jewry later this year when the Institute for Jewish Policy Research has finished crunching the numbers from the largest-ever survey of the community, conducted last autumn, which produced more than 4,700 responses.
In 2015, JPR calculated that the Charedi community was increasing by around 4.8 per cent a year. But one possibility thrown up by the latest stats is that the rate of growth may be slowing down. Hackney Jewry grew by 13 per cent from 2011 to 2021 — compared to 44 per cent the previous decade: Salford by 35 per cent, compared with 48 per cent; and Haringey by 23 per cent compared with 34 per cent before.
An alternative explanation is that a disproportionately high number of Strictly Orthodox Jews chose not to fill in the census form for whatever reason, which would skew the results. And, perhaps in Hackney, the figure could partly indicate migration to Canvey Island, Southend or elsewhere.
Blanking the religion question could lie behind the seemingly perplexing three per cent decline recorded in Gateshead. Rising Jewish school numbers certainly do not point to a falling Jewish population there. In the past, Gateshead Jewish leaders have encouraged their congregations to comply with the survey. Another suggestion is that since the Census took place during the school holidays, the large number of yeshivah students who study there were elsewhere when the forms were filled in.
It is notable, too, that while some regional communities are still decreasing, the rate of contraction slowed. Leeds Jewry lost eight per cent of its population from 2011 to 2021, compared to 17 per cent from 2001 to 2011; Brighton and Hove eight per cent too, compared to 20 per cent; and Wales just one per cent, compared to 8.5 per cent (although numbers in the main centre, Cardiff, fell by 14 per cent over the decade).
One intriguing question surrounds the rise of Jews in the South-West of England by over 16 per cent to 7,387. Could some people have sought temporary refuge during the pandemic from bigger cities or are they perhaps relocating for their retirement? (The East of England Jewish population also rose by a fifth but that contains the large community of Hertfordshire).
The South-West rise bucks a more general trend of ever greater concentration: half of all Jews in England live in just eight boroughs. This makes sense because the rising traditionally observant population will want to be near a nexus of synagogues, Jewish schools, kosher shops, mikvaot and other religious facilities.
Nevertheless, there are Jews in every one of the 331 boroughs in England and Wales from the most populous, 56,616 in Barnet, to just five in Merthyr in South Wales.
Once, to live in a town without a synagogue might have seemed a conscious decision not to affiliate to organised Jewish life. But these days, thanks to the digital revolution, it is easier than ever for Jews scattered across the regions to remain connected to the mainstream.
The pandemic accelerated the move of Jewish organisations to offer virtual programmes.
And while now the challenge faced by some communities is to rebuild in-person attendance at events and services, online provision is here to stay. (West London Synagogue's Kol Nidre service last autumn attracted nearly 3,000 views - almost three times as much as physical attendance.)
By choosing to complete the census form, Jews in isolated outposts have indicated their willingness to identify.
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