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For 70 years, the line on the graph has moved steadily in one direction: up. The number of Jewish children in Jewish schools rose from an estimated 5,200 in the mid-1950s to a peak of 36,500 in 2022/23 – an astonishing increase of 600 per cent.
But last year, for the first time since data began to be collected annually in the mid-1990s, the total surprisingly fell – to 36,100, according to the Institute for Jewish Policy Research.
Surprising, because the Charedi community is still growing and since all of its children are educated in Jewish schools, you would expect the overall number to have continued its upward ascent.
However, while there was a 1.6 per cent fall in the roll at Charedi schools in 2023/4 from the previous year, it is not quite what it seems.
What JPR believes is that a number of Charedi schools have been sanctioned by the Department for Education after poor inspection reports and have been prevented from accepting new pupils until improvements are made.
In fact, according to JPR calculations, there are around 2,500 strictly Orthodox boys, aged from 11 to 15, who are currently not in registered schools. They could be home-schooled or in unregistered institutions such as yeshivot.
If every Charedi child attended school to the age of 18, rather than going to yeshivah or sem at 16 or even younger, there would be 6,500 more Jewish children in Jewish schools.
But beyond the Charedi sector, there has been an unquestionable drop in Jewish schooling. JPR reports that the number in “mainstream” Jewish primary schools has been falling over the past three years and in secondaries, for the last two.
Whether that is down to falling birth rates or changes in parental preferences is not yet clear. The Chief Rabbi’s review into Jewish schools under his authority recently reported that mainstream Jewish schools were reaching over 40 per cent of the Jewish population but that demand may have plateaued.
Not so long ago, there were calls to open a new Jewish secondary school in north-west London or Hertfordshire, but the most recent figures suggest it might have struggled to recruit pupils.
However, some wonder if there may now be a swing back to Jewish schooling post-October 7 as parents look to protect their children from rising antisemitism or hostility towards Israel. The “huddle effect” could see a rise in applications this year. Obviously, there are Jews who live in places where there is no Jewish school within proximity. But we are a geographically fairly concentrated community, so there are many who could conceivably be sending their children to a Jewish school who choose not to.
Another factor that might push the numbers up this year is the impact of the government’s taxing of independent schools, which must now levy VAT on fees and will lose their business rates discount in spring. Children who get into elite non-Jewish day schools and whose parents can afford to keep them there are unlikely to switch to the Jewish sector.
But some parents who might have considered private education may now feel this is beyond their means and, given the good academic record of Jewish state schools, see these as a decent alternative.
From JPR’s headline figures, the increase in numbers of children attending Jewish schools has been an extraordinary success story. But it is much easier to measure pupil rolls than assess the impact of Jewish schooling – on Jewish literacy, Jewish continuity or our relations in wider society.
It is too simplistic to say that the move towards Jewish schooling will inevitably result in a more insular community – particularly as most children in “mainstream” Jewish schools will go on to higher education, where they will meet children from all sorts of backgrounds. But one cannot completely discount the risk.