On September 1 as thousands of Israeli children were heading to their first day of school and the bodies of six hostages had just been recovered from Gaza, a terrorist in the West Bank murdered three Israeli policemen. The killings came four days after the Israel Defence Forces launched a major multi-pronged operation in the West Bank, designed to pre-empt a terror wave there from growing.

The terror threat in the West Bank has been  increasing slowly for years. Several terrorist groups have been active in the West Bank for many years. These include Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, which are both backed by Iran. Palestinian Islamic Jihad has created a significant presence in the northern West Bank city of Jenin and it has increasingly been able to mobilise young men and arm them with rifles. In the wake of the October 7 attack on Israel, terror groups have increased their presence, spreading to places such as Tulkarm, Qalqilya, Tubas and other cities and towns. “Iran is building Islamic terror infrastructure in Judea and Samaria, flooding refugee camps with funds and weapons smuggled through Jordan, aiming to establish an eastern terror front against Israel,” Israeli foreign minister Israel Katz wrote on social media on August 31.

The IDF’s actions are designed to prevent these groups from taking over more areas and threatening civilians. The main challenge in the West Bank is that the terrorist groups are often focused around urban areas, particularly historic refugee camps such as Nur Shams near Tulkarm. They hide in the warren of small streets and they can easily hide their weapons and appear as civilians. Israel has changed its tactics in the last year, using armed drones to go after the terrorists. The use of new technology to fight the threat illustrates how much it has grown.

In general, since the Second Intifada, the West Bank has been free of large concentrations of terrorists. While there have been stabbing and shooting attacks, they were infrequent. The threat was kept in check by constant raids and intelligence gathering. However, the terror groups also were not well armed. The Western-backed Palestinian Authority Security Forces were able to keep relative peace and law and order. This has changed in the last several years. “The fecklessness of the Palestinian Authority when it comes to reining in terrorist groups, coupled with Iran’s campaign of supporting and arming Palestinian factions in the West Bank, has compelled Israel to carry out a large-scale military operation primarily targeting the northern West Bank,” Joe Truzman, a senior research analyst at FDD's Long War Journal, says.

The challenge has unfolded systematically over time. Palestinian Islamic Jihad carved out space for itself in Jenin. Other groups, such as the Lion’s Den appeared in Nablus and then local groups calling themselves “brigades” or “battalions” emerged as well. These consist of groups of armed young men, but they have become more sophisticated in their threats.

The terror infrastructure that was constructed in some areas of the West Bank in the last year is fueled by smuggled rifles. The rifles, according to numerous photos published of the young men, are mostly of the M-16 type, meaning they are smuggled to the West Bank and they have been diverted illegally from a country that uses these types of American-made rifles. This is important because unlike Hamas in Gaza, which has access to AK-47s primarily, the West Bank rifle smuggling phenomenon has only recently flooded these groups with weapons, and it is clear that the process has backing from abroad.

Another trend is the increased use of explosives by the groups. This includes improvised explosive devices. To defeat the explosive threats the IDF has resorted to using D-9 bulldozers and other methods. The result of the clashes is clear. The IDF has had to lay siege to urban areas and carve up streets to locate potential bomb threats. The armed groups are replicating what Hamas did in Gaza, hiding behind civilians and forcing civilian areas to pay the price due to the resulting clashes.

The IDF’s decision to launch a multi-day raid into various areas is paying off. Islamic Jihad and Hamas commanders have been eliminated. In the town of Fara’a, home to a small refugee camp, weapons were found in a mosque. However an IDF soldier was also killed in the operation in Jenin.

“Israeli security has increasingly been compromised by escalating violence in the West Bank over the last three years, while the Palestinian Authority has been outmatched by terrorist groups that are undermining its credibility and influence. Urgent action is needed to bring about substantial change in the West Bank before the situation deteriorates beyond the point of no return,” Truzman says.

Now there are concerns that a “smoldering Intifada” is spreading to the southern West Bank. This is important because up until now cities such as Hebron have largely been free from armed groups seeking to take them over. The Palestinian Authority has better control of Bethlehem and Hebrew, up until now. Hebron is a large city that spills out of hillsides around an ancient tomb where the Abraham, Isaac, Jacob, Sarah, Rebecca, and Leah of the Bible are believed to be buried, according to religious tradition.

On September 1 a terrorist killed three Israeli police near the Tarqumiya checkpoint, north of Hebron. This is a significant escalation by terrorists. It remains to be seen if the killings represent a turning point, and Israel is able to roll back the threat, or if this is the tip of the iceberg. What is important is that Israel has woken up to the broader challenge. Iran wants to enflame the West Bank and use the war in Gaza to push terror groups to take over more areas. Israel should be concerned that it is fighting for almost a year in Gaza and could wake up with another Hamas threat and growing insurgency in the West Bank. Acting to pre-empt that is essential and the IDF has made a major move in the right direction.

Seth J. Frantzman is the senior Middle East analyst for the Jerusalem Post, an adjunct Fellow at The Foundation for Defence of Democracies and author of The October 7 War: Israel’s Battle for Security in Gaza (2024)